MEMS

Well, we have seen that we have King & Queen and etc from two of the famous school in MESDAQ, now the King of the King, MEMS, which originated from the Random Walk School - going nowhere with high volume is seen tired and exhausted. Go, Go , Go, see you at Holland!

IRIS - I Return I Si(死, Hokkien)

While GPACKET and MTOUCHE is the leader of MESDAQ from the school of growth but overpriced, IRIS is the king of MESDAQ from the school of Manipulated and Speculated to Death. Well, the queen from this school IPOWER, had been XXXXed last Thursday, and when will the King follow?

Gone with the wind...

The MESDAQ leaders are turning downwards... The party is nearly end. It is now exactly the time for lucky draw. To those Cinderella of MESDAQ, this is the last reminder for them to leave before 12.00am. Take care or else you will be FUDDED (fear, uncertain, depressed and despaired)!

TMCLIFE

It is highly probable that the insiders are manipulating the price and volume action for distribution. For any breakout point suckers, be ready and buy the stock!

Many people are gathering at the stock market now!

From one of the remisier in Johor, brokerage house is now getting very hot.

What advice can you give now?

It is really hard to give advice in these volatile period. The action of human reaction to the market , compounded with the uncertainty of global political risk, are making the market highly unpredictable. The only advice is... sell with your feeling (as selling is an art) and do not buy any stock further.

Yeah, that is it... Do not keep pyramid up and fighting with others by bidding the stock higher and higher (unless you want to be a sucker of the MESDAQ party). This is definitely not a good time to buy. The good time to buy, which i recommend 3-4 months ago, had passed.

JSPC, When to sell?

JSPC, is almost same case as the LIONIND. Both are penny stocks, and both are dangerous stock in my opinion. The JSPC is reaching its resistance line of 0.20. Can it break the resistance? It is highly unpredictable... The stock has been steadily rising up on a 45 degree trend line, and it is still not obvious that the "manipulator" has shown any sign of wanting to distribute the stock greatly. As with the case for LIONIND, we should have the stock KIV and sell if we able to spot any candle of greed and hope in the future. High volume of the previous reversal point could be serve as a reliable signal to guide our judgment.

Good luck and happy Chinese New Year.

LIONIND, when to sell?

LIONIND, a hot an volatile stock recently, is making its way up to the resistance line at 1.30.It is obvious that the stock now is bullish. And short term trend is up.As shown in the chart, the previous resistance 1.30 is a possible reliable target for us to take profit at around 1.30.However, profit taking decision will be highly dependent on the price action of the stock in a single day with high spike and great volume. Judging from the stock characteristics alone, a sudden high spike with great volume signals a reversal in trend. The resistance 1.30 will indeed serve only as a rough guidance for us to lock in profit by doing partial selling. As the stock is normally correlate to the movement of the wave of penny stock speculations, another factor that will determine when to sell and lock in profit is you need to predict when the wave of penny stock actions will be stopped and reverse.

In short, sell if the price and volume action indicate greed and hope with a spike or a abnormal parabolic rise, or when you feel (as with tech analysis, intuition is important here) the wave of penny stocks will stop. Personally, i am speculating that the wave will last another 2 to 3 weeks, and even it is also possible that it will extend to period after CNY. I have a great preference to sell before CNY and lock in profit, and be free emotionally and enjoy the CNY 2007. Instead, i strongly believe that some profits are not meant to be earned by us in the stock market. These profits are those profits always attractive to speculators in the last wave fop the bull run.

The Next Week...

The trend has been bullish and many people are speculating that the trend will persist through the CNY. I also had been bullish and i am also speculating that my work to be done will be carry forward even after CNY.

More and more unprofitable stocks have been found starting to make a new high and traders are jumping in. Many stocks start looking damn tantalizing and attractive. Technically, at this particular point of time, buy anything that you found it technically relevant. It is the best of the time, and it is also the worst of the time. Volume increases and volatility set in, and in this period of time, you could make money as fast as how you could lost it when the market turn. Players in the market, particularly MESDAW and second board, should be well prepared with a gambler mentality, that are willing to make or die. The main concern is still the divergence of volume in KLCI chart. The second concern would be the boom of plantation stocks, seems to me, is already an overreaction of investors and speculators.

From a fundamental perspective, the index is now fairly priced. And without new dramatic change in the economic environment in Malaysia, any rise in the index could be speculative and dangerous. With an aggregate market PE of 18.4, investors should question if the expected growth rate of the Malaysia GDP (so-called around 6%) able to justify this ratio.

It is indeed very hard, if not impossible to predict the market direction in the future. Technically, a reverse correction should happen (well, this is very subjective). Fundamentally, the index should price at a trading range around 1100 to 1150 (well, this is truly subjective also). Experience wise (which could means that i am seriously suffer from psychological disease such as heuristic representativeness), high volume in MESDAQ and second board means danger and a storm in these market is just around the corner.

There is a need for us to be cautious and start taking profit for these moments, and be safe. Be patient.

Ultimately, it is not the thinking, it is the sitting that earn the money (Livermore). It is now a test for you to sit over the volatile period and patiently wait for the bear to set in...

SMRTECH revisited

After breaking the resistance line as shown, the stock now come to a support line at the previous resistance line. As the fourth wave in the recent bull market coming (to be precise, expecting to come), this stock could become an Ang Pow for all of the traders. As with the case of SCICOM, sudden increase of volatility should be a sell signal.

SCICOM revisited

Volatility again increase, a rise with high volume is a positive signal. This stock now demand high attention form the traders. As i have recommended before, this price is so-called relatively undervalued judging from an unadjusted PE ratio. However, penny stock, particularly MESDAQ stocks, are prone to failure technically or fundamentally. As for those that have followed my previous recommendation, you should consider taking profit in the near term, particularly if the price continue to spike upward due to greed or hope (which i am expecting). Nevertheless, predicting stock prices is ultimately an art more than a science. Traders should make their own decision according to their style of investing.

How high KLCI can go?

Rising its way up, KLCI's volume is indeed discouraging. While it is definitely not implying that the short term KLCI will drop due to the lack of volume momentum, it is indeed a weak signal. How high KLCI can go is indeed unpredictable...

Always, it is always better to be safe than sorry. The weak signal should warn us on the possible end of the run, unless the market's volume pick up its momentum again. For the mean time, as a human, we should start to ensure our focus on anticipating the end of the bull (even though in short term, KLCI is still strongly bullish judging from the price action alone).

It is always beneficial to remind myself and the rest of the traders: safety first, make money later.

Happy investing and gambling.

Breakout Point detected in almost every index!

Leaded by KLCI, the stock market today clearly acting bullish and in fact, irrational in aggregate term. The situation is so similar to last year January's to February's market. While CNY new year effect is found correlated to a bull run, we can't conclude that the bull today and in the future (expectations) will be cause by CNY effect. Correlation certainly doesn't means causation. While the forces behind could be complicated, such as dropping of oil prices and possibly rushing of foreign capital to Malaysia after Thailand ask them to do so, it is more likely that (in my personal opinion) the bull is caused by the retailer's expectations on others' expectations that the stock market will give some Chinese Ang Pow to all the investors.

The newspaper have found carry out their responsibilities well too, by promoting and directing retailers' focus and attention to the market. News and tips are again found in forums and everybody are soft and happy in discussing about the market.

All these factors, again confirm to me that the short run could be highly probable an 2007 Ang Pow Bull., but the bull is now old and the market would collapse after the Ang Pow giving festival. Be early to join the party or else, better dun go to the party at all.

自动报价股 炒家决定股价高低 有钱赚就套利离场

Adapted from Nan Yang Newspaper...

颜敏树说，自动报价股的对手是炒家，因为价格便宜。第二，这些股很多分析员都没有进行分析，所以股价的高低是由炒家来决定。

“不过，你可选择不要买。这些股可以赚快钱，且刺激。不是说不可以玩，可以玩，不过怎样买风险。”

他说，策略是：第一，留意大马交易所的警告。大马交易所的工作就是当某家公司的股价或成交量大起，交易所就会发出不寻常市场活动（UMA）等警告投资者。

“第二，股价/净资产价值（Price/NAV）超过7倍的话，忘了他吧！”

第三，如果它要跌停板的话，你根本跑不掉。第四，观察按年的季度盈利表现。第五，有钱赚，就套利离场。不然，就不要买。

The bull is charging through the 1110 resistance!

Price and volume actions have been encouraging and bullish for the previous week. It could be observed that 1120 has been a strong resistance in the graph. However, the strength of the bull is believed to be much stronger than the immediate resistance. should next week the 1120 resistance is broken, i am thinking that my next blog's title will be "See you at 1150"!


Happy trading and wish you all are blessed with fortune from penny stock before the Chinese New Year.

MESDAQ is on the way...

MESDAQ is on the way... half way to the strong resistance line. It is a short term play, where probably we will need to throw out all stock before CNY.

The bull is still alive, some of the indications are:
1) open red close green
2) drop with low volume which probably an act of profit taking
3) More and more rubbish stock are appearing on the top volume list, and this signify if ever any bull comes, it will be the last wave.