Thursday, December 07, 2006

Is it a turning point?



The KLCI today come to a halt near 1100. The rise is fierce but the small cap and MESDAQ have not been able to catch up with the game. Many small caps are still at the low level. Initial sign of increasing volume serves as a reasonable "belief" for us to anticipate a rising in these stocks in the future. Increased volatility serve as a indication that some changes are going on in the market. As the PE of the blue chip is reaching 20, it is reasonable for us to expect some of the undervalued stocks could be adjusted to the same level as well. This adjustment, if realized, will be a huge gain for many of the undervalued small cap. The only question to be asked is how enthusiastic the crowd will be after attracted by the rising of CI?

Good signs spotted (currently):
  1. Volume effect.
  2. January effect.
  3. Mass media advertising effect.
  4. Rise of online trading.
  5. Government initiatives in promoting a good (perceived) economic environment.
  6. Financial freedom and planning culture among the new generation.
  7. M&A in various sector.
  8. Foreign investors participation (how they come out with this stat? confused!).
  9. Some government policies to enhance the competitiveness of the M'sia industry (Often is a NATO, but why bother about it, as long as they talk, is good enough).
Bad signs spotted (currently):
  1. Arguments on racial topics.
  2. Middle east instability (perceived as minor effect).
  3. Manipulated high spike on start of the day and end of the day.
  4. Mass media are not advertising the stock market in the front page.
  5. Lack of participation from the retailer.
  6. Many remisiers are still catching and hitting mosquitoes in the office.

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