What is the market now?
From purely technical analysis, the bull has return and gaining strength against the bear. Technically, speaking, the bull is testing the next strong resistance at 1280, and has quite a high chance to make a new high in the near term. Probably, targeting 1350 before election (assuming election comes around June). The concern for traders is the diminishing volume, which could suggest a contraction before continuing the uptrend.
As how technical analysis, no matter how technical and advance it is, is subject to failure when other factors unpredictable by chart exert impact on the prices and volume. In today context, it will be the possible war of Iran (while i am thinking unlikely), the government intention to pull out capital after good news to fund election, or even foreign capital to pull out their capital to profit take for any kind of reasons. Taking these into considerations, it is reasonable to expect the technical analysis to "koyak" big time in the next few weeks. Shall these unpredictable factors never happen, we should see each other around 1350 very soon.
So what is your advice? I am still 100% cash, and if ever i will return speculating in the market, i will only speculate with partial of the portfolio capital unless the trend has become clear. Pyramiding could be needed should the weather turn clear and bright once again.
However, i am pretty sure that, it is probable not to chase new high (unless you wish to sponsor money for the election). Malaysian economy, if we were to consider it from a global stand point; will be exactly a MESDAQ play. I am still holding that, we should wait for a strong support line to happen before jumping it. For those who already cannot "tahan" the uptrend and wish to ride with the trend, it is also advised that you, please jump in. It is probably a good lesson for you in the future, as to improve your emotional and psychological aspect of trading. Just do it... and learn from it. Your experience gained, will be directly proportional to the cash you bet on the market.
7 comments:
As I type this message, I m watching Google Finance with much interest :P
Hahahaha. You couldnt have choose a better timing for this post bro?
All in all, please do have faith in TA. And in all complexities of TA, you forgot basic concept of huge volume and T3.
Kekeke :P
thanks for posting...
i still have faith in TA, becoz i still posting chart here...
it is obvious US down, probably we kena drag tomorrow...
though, i still posting a bull run according to technical analysis ignoring T3... (even as a evil chartist, i sincerely hope that tomorrow hope got force selling lah...as the US condition will help us in this a bit)
any how, TA is showing bull wat... purely TA ignoring T3 wat...
i go through the entire CMT (Chartered Market Technician) books, and found nothing T3 (correct me if i am wrong).. thus i categorize T3 is not a kind of TA...
While TA is showing bull, i personally thinking, guided by evil thought, hope and fear as well as greed, gold, glory and gospel, think bearish on short term...
anyhow, i stiill maintain a "buy" tomorrow for anyone that tak boleh tahan not earning money to BUY tomorrow... as i was kacau too much by them... kakaka, unless i say buy, they never stop asking me when to enter...
Hahahahahaha good one!
But then, not necessarily US down, we will go down. Unless you re referring to Intermarket Technical Analysis, it would not have any impact - two different charts ar.
And if you were referring to Intermarket Technical Analysis, then may I ask you, is the correlation between US and Msia 1? :P
TA showing bull that cannot be sustained. This one my chart can see :P Just dont know when exactly.
If you use market breadth, you ll also see a correction is due. Just dont know when exactly.
T3 is simple and effective :P
Not exactly TA but a trading concept. Best to apply.
Long term still bullish though.
historical shows that...
for large volume distribution that happen in a single week...50% continue bull run, 50% bear strike... (note: large volume distribution in a single week, not four times in a month)
second, correlation among all countries is there for a bear market, i cant remember the figure, probably around 0.7 to 0.75... no mater u are develop, developing or wat heck, bear strike in a systematic way... however, correlation in a bull run is very low, may be 0.1 only (forget the data, have to check up thick journals, damn, kekekek)
the above portion is fact...
now, interpretation...
if this is a bear, US down, Malaysia also tend to down. If this is a bull, US down, we not necessary down. Damn, wat heck? hahah, this is the drawback of quantitative analysis lah...
interpretation lie in the eyes of investors...
Super comment on correlation.
Never done it before.
I think the number should be about there :)
But like u said, problem whether its a bull or bear - which is ultimately a matter of interpretation.
If you believe in charts, you should forget about the news.
Everything known to men is supposed to be reflected in your charts. Follow your charts to the letter, or else don't use them at all.
thanks for input...
i do believe in chart, but i also believe it has lots of drawback...
i simply dun believe that all info known to men is reflected... in fact, very hardly "all" is a fact... for example, all men know the same info, all men think a like, all men have same perception on a stock, all men use the same technique to buy stock, all men have their focus of attention on the same news of a company and etc...
in fact, i judge the price as a weighted average of the opinions of the market, where all info shall be reflected in the stock price, only after the info is known by sufficient people in the market. The weighted average will be changed, when somebody possess info that not reflected in the chart, release it to the public. This view is also consistent with the test results from the strong form EMH.
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